Where Are We In This Financial Crisis & Recovery?

Where are we in the global crisis? Are we recovering yet? Why are stock prices rushing upwards when the real economy still looked unsettled? I have tried to convey some answers in my posts before. Let's look at some more related factors:

a) economic statistics - no doubt the stats that have been coming out are still bad, but we have to remember that economic stats are dated, things that are dated means we all should know already, they do not tell us something we don't already know, we went through it, we read about how many companies have been downsizing, we read about plunging commodity price and the Baltic Dry Index, we hear about the number of foreclosed homes ... hence the main aim when looking at economic stats now is to look for signs of recovery, then we have to distinguish between year on year, quarter on quarter and month on month data, year on year is the hardest to calibrate - we already know that things will be very bad on a basis, thus we look at comparative figure for the past few months, figures are important in that it takes out seasonal effects - its the same month as last year, month on month is deceptive because of seasonal effects e.g. figures for February (Chinese New Year effect / holidays / front loading) when compared to March will have the seasonal effect, which is why it is safer to look at quarter on quarter as it would indicate a more genuine trend change ... considering where we are in the recession cycle, everyone should be looking at the rate of decline, or rather the changes to the rate of decline to get at hints of recovery

b) bad news discounted - just how much of the bad news has been discounted, we can only guess, but when you take into consideration the spike in risk aversion over the last 7 months (which can be measured), it is reasonable to assume that prices have more than discounted the bad news because a depletion of confidence and a spike in risk aversion will lead to oversold markets, and that where we are coming back from, an oversold position

c) bear market rally - in the beginning I would call it a bear market rally, but since February I think its a cyclical market rally, many who call this a bear market rally are those who totally missed out profiting from the rally, the more it rallies, the louder will those who did not buy will shout that it is a bear market rally ... you will also notice that those fundamentals driven experts have gone a lot quieter in recent weeks as the markets continued to climb because they have been wrong and wrong week in week out, hence the only people still shouting are technical analysts, or rather those chartists who also failed to spot the rising trend are now calling for a massive correction ... nobody wants to be wrong and at the same time not being able to make some money when others have traded profitably, beware of the underlying reasons why some people are saying certain things

d) what could go wrong - markets will seize up again if there are major unknowns appearing again, such as if a few big banks were to collapse, or that some of them would require another bailout in the hundreds of billions again, that is not likely after the "stress test" that did not please many people, to me its a very good move by Geithner because it opens up the books and sores for all to see, only with another round of panic will the bond markets seize up, and when they do, the risk aversion will return, looking at what has transpired, that risk has be lowered significantly

So, yes, foreclosures will be bad, unemployment may still rise ( I expect them to peak by end of June/July 2009), pockets of Europe will still be very bad, but the focus has shifted to investors looking for signs of recovery, and every time economic stats DOES NOT say that, markets will just drift lower, but not correct massively, as the amount of liquidity and the need to have an exposure in order not to miss out, will counterbalance the markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Robots In The Army

As a part of the Inspectorbots series of Wireless Video Inspection Robots, the Delta Unit prides itself at being an affordable surveillance and reconnaissance bot. Its been specifically designed for situations where you would want to call the SWAT or the Hazmat team. Quite like the RC car that you like to play with, the Delta moves ahead and beams back live footage of the hostile scenario to the control center, without putting lives at risk.

The unit comes equipped with a pan/tilting camera and can be additionally fitted with sensors to detect various poisonous gasses or radiation levels of the concerned environment. Featuring an aircraft grade, anodized aluminum chassis, this bot can withstand quite a bit of kaboom action.

Designer : Chris Rogers
Source : yankodesign.com

Toyota Avalon 2009

The 2009 Toyota Avalon ranks 1 out of 9 Affordable Large Cars. This ranking is based on our analysis of 55 published reviews and test drives of the Toyota Avalon, and our analysis of reliability and safety data. The 2009 Toyota Avalon is the largest car from the world's largest automaker. While it isn't an exciting ride, it does offer the best fuel-economy in its class, excellent power for everyday driving and an interior that compares well with many cars costing thousands of dollars more. These factors, plus its value over time, helped the Avalon win the U.S. News Best Car for the Money Award in the large car class

The Toyota Avalon combines class-leading interior space, a high-quality interior that's long on comfort, and Toyota's bulletproof reputation for reliability. Its chief drawback is its cost -- at this price, many buyers would rather simply opt for a luxury car. On the other hand, with Toyota's rock-solid reputation for quality, and the best fuel-economy in its class, the Avalon's cost-to-own works in the car's favor.

While many reviewrs note that the Avalon is priced above some competitors, they also say that steep price buys a lot of car. Edmunds says, "Its price of entry may be higher than its rivals', but if you're looking for the most refined, best-built full-size sedan in the $30,000 price bracket, you need look no further than the 2009 Toyota Avalon." Still, the Avalon isn't for everyone. While most reviewers say it is a competent and comfortable performer, it is by no means sporty.

If it's the Avalon's near-luxury interior that you're interested in, we'd suggest that you also test drive to Hyundai Genesis. That car similarly offers an interior that wouldn't be out of place in a Lexus, and a price under $40,000. But, with rear wheel drive and an available V8, it outperforms the Avalon. If a safe, comfortable ride and a lot of space are your requirements, you might want to look at the Mercury Sable. Built on a Volvo-derived platform, it is as safe as you can get in this class, and spacious as well. But the Avalon sits atop our large car list -- there may not be a better fit for your needs.

For 2009, the mid-level Touring trim has been dropped. Several formerly optional pieces of safety tech are now standard on all Avalons - including active front headrest, brake assist, traction control and stability control. The Avalon comes in three trim levels -- including the XL, XLS and Limited.

Come check out this month's Best Toyota Deals where we have done the research to get you the best offer.

From : http://usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/

Whooping Cough, Why Worry?

Whooping cough is a highly infectious respiratory illness caused by Bordetella pertussis, a known player in the infectious disease world since the 16th century. In its heyday it was responsible for at least 200,000 cases a year just in the United States. These cases were reduced significantly with the development of the vaccine in the 1940's. However, since the 1980's there has been a steady increase again with 9000 cases in 2002 , and 25,000 cases in 2004. The reason for this is unknown, but here's what you need to know.

--The diagnosis is very difficult to make, and it is mostly based on clinical exam and history (not labs) so pay attention to your symptoms which usually occur in 3 stages:

1. Catarrhal stage: 1-2 weeks of cold like symptoms with runny nose, congestion.

2. Paroxysmal stage: 1-6 weeks of severe, rapid coughing spells ending in a long
inspiratory effort with a high pitched whoop. Characteristically this cough ends with vomiting and exhaustion and it is usually worse at night as the lungs try to expel the thick mucus. The patient may appear normal between these attacks.
Hear how it sounds.

3. Convalescent stage: you finally get better in another 2-3 weeks.

--All adults 19 - 64 years old and especially those with infants should receive the new pertussis vaccine which is given as one shot in combination with the diphtheria/tetanus vaccine. It is not a live vaccine so there is no risk of getting the disease from the vaccine. It is considered safe and effective, however, its safety in pregnant women and in those over 65 has not yet been established. Teens 11 - 18 are also recommended to get the vaccine. The immunity from this vaccine is expected to last 6-10 years.

--All close contacts of a patient with whooping cough are recommended to be treated with Erythromycin or sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim for 14 days.

--The patient should be isolated for 5 days after antibiotic therapy has started, and contact with infants should be completely avoided.

Please contact your doctor if you have any concerns.


References:
http://www.medem.com/
http://www.whoopingcough.net/
www.chestnet.org
http://www.cdc.gov/nip/vaccine/tdap/tdap_adult_recs.pdf
The Medical Letter on Drugs and Therapeutics, Volume 48 (Issue 1226), Jan 16, 2006.
Photo courtesy of duke.usask.ca

Low Cost Life Insurance? It's Online

Unless you're a carefree, 20-something single with no debt and no property, chances are you've at least thought about buying life insurance. Faced with the hassle of finding an agent, a carrier and a good deal (not to mention the health exam), you may even have considered making your purchase online.

It's a good idea for a number of reasons. First, by using online research tools - Web sites that allow you to compare rates from competing major companies - you improve your chance of getting a good deal. Second, online buying greatly reduces the time you will spend on the process.

"The traditional way of purchasing life insurance can take weeks from start to finish," notes MichaelRowell, CEO of Efinancial.com, a top shop-and-compare site for life insurance. "Online buying is typically much faster. For example, many of our clients can qualify for $300,000 in coverage almost instantly." Visit www.efinancial.com to compare policy quotes from major carriers such as AIG, Prudential and Transamerica.

The key to the quick turnaround and ease of purchase is that most Web sites are dealing with term life insurance policies. Term life insurance tends to be easier to qualify for and offers lower monthly premiums than other life insurance products. Many carriers offer term life products that don't even require a medical exam, although you will still have to complete (truthfully) a survey on your health status.

"Term life can be a great investment for a very wide range of consumer types," says Rowell. "Lower monthly premiums, ease of approval and the variety of products from top companies make term life appealing to many people. Plus, some companies now even offer a term life product that at the end of the term returns every penny of the premium you paid in over the life of the policy."

Applying online for life insurance also gives consumers greater flexibility in determining when they commit to a particular company or policy. While entering your information on some Web sites may result in endless phone calls or e-mails from marketers, Efinancial does not share applicant information. "You will only ever get a call from an Efinancial representative, and only after you've initiated the process by entering your information on our site," says Rowell. "We then act as facilitators to connect the consumer with an agent at the company of his or her choice."

The company uses a proprietary, patent-pending automation engine that speeds along the application process even faster than other online life insurance sites. By pairing applicants with an Efinancial representative who facilitates their application, the company combines the speed, convenience and flexibility of the Web with the personalized service traditionally provided by insurance agents.

To quickly compare quotes from top companies and secure speedy approval for your term life insurance application, visit www.efinancial.com.